Stock-to-Flow Ratio
- 1M1M
- 3M3M
- 6M6M
- 1Y1Y
- ALLALL
About this metric
What it measures
The Stock-to-Flow Ratio (S2F) divides the existing bitcoin supply by one year of new issuance; higher values mean greater scarcity. A model fitted to historical data turns the ratio into the S2F model price, shown against the actual price.
How to read it
Every 210,000 blocks, about four years, the block subsidy halves: yearly issuance falls by half, the ratio doubles and the model price steps up sharply. Price above the model means the market values Bitcoin above what scarcity alone implies; price below means the opposite. Days to halving shows where price sits in the halving cycle.
The model looks only at supply and assumes scarcity drives price, ignoring demand, macro conditions and market structure; fitted to just a few cycles, its statistics are disputed. Since the 2020 halving, price has mostly stayed well below the model, and the gap widened further after the 2024 halving. Use it to understand halving supply shocks, not as a price target.
- Frequency
- Daily (UTC 00:00)
- Asset
- BTC
- Category
- On-chain Indicators
- Type
- Breakdown
- Unit
- USD
- Data since
- 2010-01-01
- Latest data
- 2026-10-27
FAQ
How is the Stock-to-Flow Ratio calculated?
Divide the bitcoin already mined by one year of new issuance. With supply near 20 million coins and about 164,000 new coins a year, the ratio is around 120. A halving cuts the flow in half and doubles the ratio.
Why does the S2F model price step up after each halving?
The model converts the ratio into a price through a fixed power-law formula. A halving doubles the ratio, so the model price rises far more than twofold, while nothing forces the actual price to move with it.
How is days to halving calculated?
For past dates it counts the days to the halving that actually followed. For the upcoming halving, due every 210,000 blocks, it converts the blocks left into days at the pace of block production. Block times vary, so that figure is an estimate that shifts over time.
