
Hodler Net Position Change is the BTC difference between the modeled Hodled or Lost Coins supply today and 30 days earlier. That supply is circulating BTC multiplied by one minus Liveliness, so the change tracks a coin-age-based holding estimate rather than a fixed-age holder cohort.
Positive values mean the modeled inactive balance has grown over 30 days; negative values mean it has contracted. The reading was about +64,558 BTC on October 17, 2022, compared with -65,317 BTC at the April 2024 halving. Persistence and direction help distinguish extended holding phases from reductions in the estimate.
Adjacent observations share 29 days, so adding the daily readings double-counts overlapping changes. Issuance, accumulated coin age and wallet transfers all affect the underlying estimate; positive values do not establish current purchases, and this is not the 155-day Long-Term Holder Net Position Change.
No. Each point compares the modeled balance with its level 30 days earlier. A reading of +50,000 BTC means a net increase across that whole window, not 50,000 BTC added on the latest day.
Older transfers can leave the rolling comparison, or Liveliness can rise as accumulated age is spent. Changes in the model do not require a matching exchange sale.
The supplied series has its first non-null change on February 2, 2009, after enough history exists for the comparison. The underlying balance starts in January 2009.