
The Hash Ribbon tracks the 30-day and 60-day simple moving averages of Bitcoin's network hash rate. A 30-day average below the 60-day marks miner capitulation; a cross back above ends it. A buy signal is flagged once that recovery is joined by price momentum turning positive.
Capitulation means hash rate is falling, typically after a halving cuts revenue or price drops sharply: high-cost miners switch off and may sell coins to stay afloat. A 30-day average back above the 60-day shows hash power returning and that pressure easing; historically, many of the buy signals that followed came near local lows, though they are rare.
Hash rate is estimated from block times and difficulty, so it is noisy, and weather-related curtailment or miner relocations can trigger crossovers unrelated to profitability. Signals lag by design and miner selling weighs less on a larger market, so pair the ribbon with price trend and miner revenue.
It is any stretch when the 30-day hash rate average sits below the 60-day average. Falling hash rate means machines are being switched off because they no longer pay, and miners may sell holdings to cover costs, adding supply to the market. Past capitulations have lasted from a few weeks to a few months.
Two conditions have to line up: capitulation has ended, with the 30-day average back above the 60-day, and BTC's short-term price average has crossed above a longer one, so momentum has turned positive. The chart marks capitulation days and buy signals on the right axis as 0/1 values.
Each halving cuts the block subsidy in half, so miner revenue drops sharply overnight and less efficient machines become unprofitable. Capitulation has therefore often appeared in the weeks after a halving. Turn on the halving markers to compare the dates.