Reserve Risk
- 1M1M
- 3M3M
- 6M6M
- 1Y1Y
- ALLALL
- LinearLinear
- LogLog
About this metric
What it measures
Reserve Risk divides the Bitcoin price by the HODL Bank, the cumulative opportunity cost holders accept by not selling, estimated mainly from how many old coins are spent. Lower values mean conviction is high relative to price.
How to read it
Low readings mean strong conviction at a relatively modest price; historically they appeared from late bear markets into early bull phases. High readings mean price has run far ahead of conviction as old coins start moving, which historically happened near cycle tops. The chart defaults to a log scale to compare levels across years.
Because the opportunity cost keeps accumulating, the ratio has drifted lower from cycle to cycle, so early-cycle levels do not transfer directly to recent years; compare readings within the same cycle. It reacts quickly to price, and a one-day move does not mean conviction changed abruptly.
- Frequency
- Daily (UTC 00:00)
- Asset
- BTC
- Category
- On-chain Indicators
- Type
- Single value
- Data since
- 2009-01-03
- Latest data
- 2026-10-27
- Data points
- 6,507
FAQ
What is the HODL Bank in Reserve Risk?
It is the opportunity cost holders build up by not selling. The fewer old coins are spent, the faster it grows; dividing price by it shows how high price is relative to holder conviction.
What does a low Reserve Risk indicate?
Price is low relative to long-term conviction. Historically such zones appeared late in bear markets and early in new uptrends. The full-history median is about 0.0023, and recent readings generally run below early ones.
Is Reserve Risk based on the Long-Term Holder cohort?
No. It estimates conviction from coin days destroyed across the whole market, not from coins held 155 days or more. For that cohort, see Long-Term Holder Supply and Long-Term Holder MVRV.
