
The Spent Output Profit Ratio (SOPR) takes all coins moved on-chain in a day and divides their USD value when spent by their USD value when they last moved. Above 1, those coins moved at an aggregate profit; below 1, at a loss.
A rising SOPR above 1 means more profit is being taken; below 1, loss-making sales dominate. The 1 level often acts as a psychological line: in bull markets, dips to 1 tend to bounce as holders refuse to sell at a loss, while in bear markets rallies to 1 often meet break-even selling. Turning on the 7-day moving average filters daily noise.
This version counts every spent output, including those that lived under an hour. These are mostly exchange shuffling and quick re-sends, and they pull the ratio toward 1 and add noise. SOPR reflects only coins that moved that day, and a one-day spike can come from a few large, old coins.
Most coins that move on-chain were held only briefly, so their value when spent is close to their value when acquired. The full-history median is about 1.002, so the size and persistence of moves away from 1 matter more than any single day.
Adjusted SOPR excludes outputs that existed for less than an hour. Their spent value is almost identical to their creation value, so removing them makes the profit and loss signal clearer.
The market keeps selling at a loss, typical of bear markets. In bull markets, a brief dip below 1 that quickly recovers has often marked panic selling being absorbed. The lowest reading on record is about 0.65.