
Short-Term Holder Realized Supply Density is the percentage of short-term holder BTC with estimated costs inside ±5%, ±10% and ±15% of spot. The denominator is the short-term cohort's supply, broadly coins held for less than about 155 days, rather than all circulating BTC.
A high reading means recent holders are clustered near breakeven, making their aggregate profit status sensitive to modest moves. The ±15% series reached about 100% on August 29, 2023; a low reading instead means more of this cohort's costs lie away from spot, either above or below it.
Changes reflect both moving price windows and coins entering or aging out of the cohort. A rising share does not establish fresh inflows, and transfers between wallets can alter estimated costs; the three overlapping series should be compared, not stacked or added.
Recent holders' costs generally sit closer to recent prices, and the denominator covers only their cohort. A high cohort percentage is not the same percentage of Bitcoin's total supply.
It does not determine the direction of their P/L. Costs can be far below spot with large gains or far above spot with large losses; STH-MVRV or a cost distribution adds that distinction.
Yes. Spot moving changes all three windows, and coins can mature out of the short-term cohort without moving. Both effects can shift the shares even without new transactions by the remaining holders.