
The Puell Multiple divides the USD value of bitcoin newly issued through the block subsidy each day by the 365-day average of that value. It shows how far miners' issuance revenue sits above or below its yearly norm.
Miners sell steadily to cover power and hardware costs, making them a constant source of supply. Very low readings mean issuance revenue is far below its yearly average and high-cost miners get squeezed; historically, values under 0.5 clustered near bear market lows. Very high readings give miners more reason to sell; values above 4 historically appeared near cycle tops.
Each halving cuts daily issuance in half overnight while the 365-day average still holds the old reward, so readings run structurally low for about a year. Only new coins count, not transaction fees. Early readings reached about 24.8, and peaks have fallen markedly in recent cycles.
New coins per block drop by half, so at an unchanged price daily issuance value halves while the 365-day average falls slowly. The reading steps down sharply and stays low for about a year, until the average reflects the new issuance.
Miners sell most newly issued coins, so their revenue shapes selling pressure. Revenue far below normal pushes weaker miners out, which has tended to coincide with cycle lows; revenue far above normal has tended to come late in fast rallies.
No. It values only the coins newly issued through the block subsidy. As the subsidy halves roughly every four years, fees may make up a larger share of miner income; Total Miner Revenue includes them.