Power Law Price Model
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The Power Law Price Model fits a long-run relationship of the form model price = A × elapsed time raised to a power, where A and the exponent are fitted parameters. The series is a modeled USD price per BTC, not an observed transaction price or a holder cost basis.
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BTC above the curve trades at a premium to this fitted time trend; below it, at a discount. The model value at the 2020 halving was about $12,134 and at the 2024 halving about $66,569. The curve rises with elapsed time, so a new high in the model alone does not show stronger market demand.
The result depends on the time origin, fitting window and coefficients. A fit that uses later observations can describe earlier periods with hindsight, and the curve does not measure demand, liquidity or economic value. Historical deviations need not close, and the fitted price is not a forecast.
- Tiheys
- Päivittäin (UTC 00:00)
- Omaisuuserä
- BTC
- Kategoria
- On-chain-indikaattorit
- Tyyppi
- Yksittäinen arvo
- Yksikkö
- USD
- Dataa alkaen
- 2010-01-02
- Uusin data
- 2026-10-28
UKK
What does a Bitcoin power law model actually fit?
It relates price to elapsed time through a power function. Taking logarithms of both price and elapsed time turns that relationship into a straight line, whose fitted slope and intercept determine the curve.
Why does the power law model keep rising during a BTC decline?
Its input is elapsed time rather than today's market price. In this series, the modeled price rose from about $26,252 at the start of 2022 to $40,032 at year-end regardless of the market's path.
How is the Power Law Model different from Stock-to-Flow?
The power law model uses elapsed time as its explanatory input. Stock-to-Flow models price from existing supply relative to new issuance, so halvings directly change that input; neither model guarantees a market price.
