Hodled or Lost Coins
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Hodled or Lost Coins multiplies circulating BTC supply by one minus Liveliness, the cumulative ratio of coin days destroyed to coin days created. The result is a model-based inactive-supply equivalent in BTC, not a count of addresses or coins proven inaccessible.
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A rising estimate means supply growth and unspent age accumulation outweigh the effect of age destruction; a falling estimate reflects the reverse balance. The series peaked near 8.25 million BTC on November 15, 2016, and stood near 7.78 million at the April 2024 halving, so it does not simply grow with network age.
The model cannot distinguish deliberate long-term custody from lost private keys and does not assign individual coins to an inactive bucket. Internal transfers can change Liveliness, while issuance changes supply; either can move the estimate without a corresponding purchase or sale.
- Tiheys
- Päivittäin (UTC 00:00)
- Omaisuuserä
- BTC
- Kategoria
- On-chain-indikaattorit
- Tyyppi
- Yksittäinen arvo
- Yksikkö
- BTC
- Dataa alkaen
- 2009-01-03
- Uusin data
- 2026-10-28
- Datapisteet
- 6,508
UKK
Does Hodled or Lost Coins tell us how many bitcoin are permanently lost?
No. It converts an aggregate coin-age ratio into a BTC amount. Patient holders and inaccessible coins both contribute to inactivity, and the blockchain cannot establish whether a holder still controls a private key.
Is this the same as supply last active more than a year ago?
No. That measure counts coins crossing a specific age cutoff. Hodled or Lost Coins uses Liveliness across the full age history and has no one-year or seven-year threshold.
Can this estimate decline if lost coins never move again?
Yes. It includes a modeled holding component as well as potentially lost coins. Spending accumulated age elsewhere on the network can lower the estimate without any lost coins returning.
