
Short-Term Holder Supply in Loss counts the BTC in the recent holding cohort, using a cutoff around 155 days, whose last-move price is higher than the current BTC price. It is a BTC balance of underwater recent supply, not a realized loss flow.
An increase shows a wider quantity of recent holdings below cost, while a decrease means fewer BTC remain in that position. This series reached about 5.24 million BTC on April 6, 2018, but its 2022 maximum was about 2.60 million. Absolute stress levels therefore depend on how large the short-term cohort is as well as on price.
Coins can leave the loss group by recovering above cost, being spent or aging into long-term supply. A falling reading alone does not prove recovery in sentiment or realized capitulation. Internal wallet transfers may also refresh costs, so compare this balance with STH Supply and the profit/loss supply ratio.
Underwater coins can age past roughly 155 days and become long-term supply without recovering in price. Spending can also remove or reset their recorded cost.
No. It measures the stock of recent coins currently below recorded cost. Realized loss metrics instead examine coins actually spent at a loss during a period.
No. A balance should be compared with the total short-term supply at the time. The same underwater amount represents a larger share of a smaller cohort.