
Supply Last Active 3y+ measures the percentage of circulating BTC whose last on-chain movement was at least three years ago. All older coins remain included, so it is a cumulative age threshold rather than a single HODL Waves band.
An increase reflects a larger relative stock of coins untouched across several years. The share was 27.853% at the May 2020 halving and 45.227% at the April 2024 halving, later peaking at 46.775% on May 26, 2024. These readings describe the depth of dormancy, not the direction of the next price move.
The three-year wait makes this a slow structural indicator, and lost coins can account for part of the balance. A holder moving BTC to a new wallet resets age even if ownership is unchanged; compare with the two-year share to see whether changes are concentrated in older cohorts.
Coins only qualify after three years without an on-chain move. A large cohort created during an earlier market phase can enter years later, even when current activity is quiet.
With consistent supply and age definitions, no. Every coin aged three years or more also qualifies for the two-year threshold, so the three-year share is a subset.
It records persistence of on-chain inactivity, which can be consistent with long-term holding. It cannot distinguish deliberate holding from lost keys or custody arrangements, so conviction remains an interpretation.