MVRV Z-Score
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About this metric
What it measures
The MVRV Z-Score takes the gap between Bitcoin's market cap and Realized Cap and divides it by the standard deviation of market cap over its full history. It expresses how stretched valuation is relative to holders' cost basis.
How to read it
The higher the score, the more market cap is stretched above holders' aggregate cost basis. Historically, readings around 7 or higher have appeared near major cycle tops, while readings below 0, where market cap falls under Realized Cap, have coincided with bear market bottom zones.
The standard deviation is computed over all history and grows with the market, so recent readings are compressed and the latest cycle peak stayed far below early-cycle levels. Only a few cycles exist to test it. It is most useful at the extremes and says little in the middle of its range.
- Frequency
- Daily (UTC 00:00)
- Asset
- BTC
- Category
- Cost Basis & Valuation
- Type
- Single value
- Data since
- 2009-01-03
- Latest data
- 2026-10-27
- Data points
- 6,501
FAQ
How is the MVRV Z-Score different from the MVRV Ratio?
MVRV is market cap divided by Realized Cap. The Z-Score uses the difference between the two and scales it by the historical volatility of market cap, making extremes more pronounced.
What does a negative MVRV Z-Score mean?
Market cap is below Realized Cap, so BTC trades under the average cost basis of all coins. Over the full history this has happened on more than 700 days in total, mostly late in bear markets.
Why have MVRV Z-Score peaks gotten lower each cycle?
The denominator is the standard deviation of market cap since launch, which grows as Bitcoin gets larger, while price swings have become more muted. The roughly 7 level reached at earlier tops has therefore become harder to hit.
