
The MVRV Ratio divides Bitcoin's market cap by its Realized Cap. Above 1, the market as a whole holds unrealized profit; below 1, price is under the average cost basis of all coins.
Higher readings mean larger paper gains and a stronger incentive to take profit. Historically, MVRV above roughly 3.5 has appeared near cycle tops, while dips below 1 have clustered around bear market lows; the middle of the range is best read together with the trend.
Peak readings have declined from one cycle to the next, so older top thresholds may not be reached again. Lost coins held at very low cost and long-term custody holdings also shape the ratio. Use it to gauge where the market sits in the cycle, not for short-term timing.
Bitcoin is trading below the average price at which all coins last moved, so holders are in aggregate unrealized loss. Over the full history this has happened on more than 700 days in total, mostly late in bear markets.
It reflects earlier cycles, when tops reached or exceeded that level. More recent cycle highs came in clearly lower, so comparing readings within the current cycle is more informative than waiting for a fixed number.
MVRV is a simple ratio of market cap to Realized Cap. The Z-Score takes the gap between the two and divides it by the historical standard deviation of market cap, which makes extremes stand out more.