Delta Cap (Realized Cap Minus Average Cap)
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About this metric
What it measures
Delta Cap subtracts Average Cap, the running mean of Bitcoin's daily market cap over its history, from Realized Cap, the aggregate cost basis of all coins. The result is a slow-moving line often treated as a deep-value floor for the network.
How to read it
In past cycles, Bitcoin's market cap has only approached or briefly touched Delta Cap during the most severe phases of bear markets, so the gap between the two shows how far valuation sits above that historical floor. Dividing Delta Cap by circulating supply gives Delta Price, which can be compared with BTC price directly.
Average Cap is an all-time mean, so the line reacts very slowly and has been tested in only a handful of cycles. Realized Cap still counts lost and long-dormant coins at their old prices. Treat Delta Cap as context for extreme undervaluation, not as a precise bottom.
- Frequency
- Daily (UTC 00:00)
- Asset
- BTC
- Category
- Cost Basis & Valuation
- Type
- Single value
- Unit
- USD
- Data since
- 2009-01-03
- Latest data
- 2026-10-27
- Data points
- 6,507
FAQ
How is Delta Cap calculated?
Average Cap is the sum of Bitcoin's daily market cap over its history divided by the number of days. Delta Cap is Realized Cap minus that average.
Why is Delta Cap linked to bear market bottoms?
Delta Cap is Realized Cap minus a further amount, so it sits below a level that market cap itself rarely breaks. Historically, market cap has come close to Delta Cap only during late-stage capitulation, though the sample covers just a few cycles.
What is Delta Price?
Delta Price is Delta Cap divided by circulating supply. It turns the line into a per-coin level that can be read on the same axis as BTC price.
