Active Investor Price (True Market Mean)
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- 6M6M
- 1Y1Y
- ALLALL
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About this metric
What it measures
The True Market Mean takes Realized Cap minus the value attributed to miner issuance, then divides it by an activity-weighted estimate of circulating supply. It approximates the average cost basis of investors still active in the market.
How to read it
When BTC trades above the True Market Mean, active investors are in profit on average and the market has tended to be in a stronger phase. Sustained trading below it has often marked a shift into weaker conditions, with the deeper parts of past bear markets unfolding beneath it. It typically sits above the plain Realized Price and reacts faster to market changes.
It is a model estimate: active supply rests on coin-age assumptions, and the way miner value is removed also shapes the result. The metric is relatively new and has been tested against only a limited number of cycles. Data starts in July 2010.
- Frequency
- Daily (UTC 00:00)
- Asset
- BTC
- Category
- Cost Basis & Valuation
- Type
- Single value
- Unit
- USD
- Data since
- 2010-07-18
- Latest data
- 2026-10-27
- Data points
- 5,946
FAQ
How is the True Market Mean different from Realized Price?
Realized Price counts every coin at its last-moved price, including coins dormant for years or lost, and includes value created by miner issuance. The True Market Mean strips out the miner component and down-weights inactive coins, so it usually sits higher and closer to the cost of people actually trading.
Why is the True Market Mean read as a bull-bear line?
It is the average breakeven price of active investors. Above it, most active capital is in profit and holders tend to sit tight; below it, losses spread and rallies toward the line often meet breakeven selling.
What is active supply in the True Market Mean calculation?
Active supply scales circulating supply by a liveliness factor that reflects how much accumulated coin age has been spent across the network. The more coins stay dormant, the smaller it gets, so dormant and lost coins do not dilute the average cost.
