Short-Term Holder NUPL

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Short-Term Holder NUPL subtracts the realized value of short-term holdings from their market value and divides by that cohort's market value. The unitless ratio describes net unrealized gains or losses on coins conventionally held for less than about 155 days, rather than on all circulating supply.

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Readings above zero mean recent holders are in aggregate paper profit; readings below zero mean they are underwater. The series stayed between about -0.677 and +0.0247 in 2022, with the low on June 18, showing how little aggregate profit recent holdings carried during that year. Rising values indicate improving cohort profitability, while falling values indicate more stress.

Coins age out of the group and new transfers refresh its cost base, so changes are not driven by price alone. This version includes unfiltered internal movements that can make old holdings look newly acquired. A cohort average cannot reveal how many individual holders are losing.