Binary CDD (Supply-Adjusted CDD Above Average)
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Binary CDD compares daily Supply-Adjusted Coin Days Destroyed with its historical average. It returns 1 when the daily reading is above that baseline and 0 otherwise, giving a unitless flag for elevated coin-age expenditure rather than its magnitude.
วิธีอ่าน
Clusters of 1s indicate repeated days of above-average adjusted age spending; long runs of 0s indicate fewer such days. Both states occur throughout the record: the 2012 and 2016 halvings had readings of 1, while the 2020 and 2024 halvings had readings of 0, so a halving alone does not determine the flag.
The conversion discards size: a marginal exceedance and an enormous spike both show 1. The historical baseline and non-sale wallet transfers influence the signal; inspect the underlying Supply-Adjusted CDD to judge magnitude, and do not treat a binary state as a probability or directional forecast.
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- ข้อมูลตั้งแต่
- 2009-01-03
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- 2026-10-28
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คำถามที่พบบ่อย
What does a Binary CDD reading of 0 mean?
Supply-adjusted age expenditure did not exceed its historical-average baseline. It does not mean there were no transfers or no coin days destroyed.
What would a moving average of Binary CDD represent?
It would show the fraction of observations flagged 1 within that window. For example, an average of 0.4 means 40% of observations were above the baseline, not a 40% probability of a price move.
Why use Binary CDD instead of the underlying CDD?
It makes the persistence of above-average activity easier to see without a few huge spikes dominating the vertical scale. The trade-off is losing information about how large each day's age expenditure was.
