Stock-to-Flow Deflection
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Stock-to-Flow Deflection divides Bitcoin's market price by the price implied by a model based on circulating supply relative to annual new issuance. It is a unitless multiple: 1 means market and model prices match, with readings above or below 1 marking a premium or discount to that model.
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A rising ratio means market price is gaining relative to the model, while a falling ratio means it is lagging further behind. Every annual maximum from 2022 through 2025 remained below 1 in this series; on June 30, 2026 the ratio reached a record low of about 0.043. This persistent gap demonstrates that price need not return to the model.
The denominator is a fitted scarcity model, not an independently established fair value. Halvings alter issuance and therefore the model path, while demand, macro conditions and market structure are outside its supply-based premise. A low deflection is evidence of model divergence, not a price forecast or proof of undervaluation.
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- BTC
- Kategori
- On-chain-indikatorer
- Type
- Enkeltverdi
- Data siden
- 2010-01-01
- Nyeste data
- 2026-10-28
- Datapunkter
- 6,145
FAQ
Is Stock-to-Flow Deflection a percentage deviation?
No. It is market price divided by model price. A reading of 0.5 means market price is half the model price, or 50% below it; it does not mean a positive 0.5% deviation.
How does deflection differ from the Stock-to-Flow Ratio?
The Stock-to-Flow Ratio divides existing supply by a year of new issuance. Deflection instead compares actual price with the price generated by an S2F model, so it depends on both market price and the chosen model formula.
Does an S2F deflection below 1 imply price must catch up?
No. The series remained below 1 throughout 2022–2025, and later fell further. A model can overstate price for years; there is no mechanism forcing market price to converge with it.
