Analysts at research and brokerage firm Bernstein have initiated coverage on the Peter Thiel-backed crypto firm Bullish, which recently landed an upsized $1.1 billion initial public offering, with shares surging on its NYSE debut.
In a note to clients on Monday, the analysts led by Gautam Chhugani set an initial $60 price target — 14.6% to the upside on Friday's closing price of $52.35 — with a "market-perform" rating, citing the firm's seasoned management team, with a strong edge in running an institutional exchange business.
Bernstein expects Bullish to emerge as the second-largest institutional crypto exchange behind Coinbase, pending the successful launch of its U.S. business in 2026. While Coinbase remains the dominant player, analysts argue the market offers opportunities in areas such as stablecoins, market data, and indices.
Bullish's ownership of crypto media platform Coindesk could also serve as a springboard into a subsequent retail exchange launch, the analysts argued. Still, with the stock trading at around 28 times estimated 2027 EBITDA, or 1.4 times its IPO price, they cautioned that investors will want to see early evidence of execution in the U.S. before buying into the growth story.
The institutional crypto market
The institutional crypto market has so far been dominated by market-makers and arbitrage funds operating largely offshore, Bernstein said. However, the analysts expect the U.S. to emerge as the key hub, as major asset managers roll out products ranging from single-asset ETFs to actively managed crypto funds — forecasting the institutional crypto revenue pool will more than triple, climbing from about $5 billion today to $18 billion by 2030, with the U.S. share rising to 20% from just 7% now.
Bernstein expects Bullish to capture roughly 8% of U.S. institutional spot volumes by the end of 2027, while its global share remains about 7%. The analysts project that crypto derivatives, including futures and options, will account for 11% of Bullish's volumes and 10% of revenues by that year, as the broader institutional derivatives pool expands from $3 billion to $13 billion by 2030, with the U.S. taking 20% of the market.
Overall, the firm forecasts Bullish's revenue will grow from $213 million in 2024 to $377 million in 2027, with EBITDA margins widening from 24% to 42% as U.S. buildout costs fade. The analysts' $60 price target values Bullish at roughly 34 times 2027 estimated EBITDA — a premium to Coinbase and Robinhood — on expectations of significant growth potential.
"We expect a successful U.S. business debut to be the north star for BLSH to create shareholder value," they concluded.
Chhugani maintains long positions in various cryptocurrencies.
